At times I forget I have a blog to post. Posting regularly will take some time getting used to. Anyways, quick note is, I'm short from 927.5 and holding it.
For the bear case to win out tomorrow, SPX 916 and 912 need to be broken. ES under 911 by tomorrow's open can set the ball rolling. UE numbers may get massaged with revisions to meet the -360K expected number (more likely around -500K), but UE rate will very likely come in 0.1% higher. This should put downward pressure on the market during the morning with a reversal in the afternoon. If the USD tanks on this report, then we may see a crazy rally like Wednesday morning with SPX again making it back to 929/930 on the back of commodities.
Market with markup shenanigans - SPX 916 to 930.
Market with no shenanigans - SPX 915 to 908/904 with a reversal around 908/904 to test 912 before the close. If the second case happens, shorting 912 or the close would be ideal for a down monday.
Before you ask why two forecasts, Wednesday's action left me confused. There was no edge to either bear or bull, and the only reason I could come up with is a pump and dump scheme by the MMs before pulling the rug from under the longs. In short this is one f'ed up market with very little structural liquidity and program trading dominating everything else. If you really want to know where the market is going, ask the Goldman boys.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
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